안녕하세요. 고라소니의 영어로 경제보기 코너입니다.
오늘은 09/09/2019 자 Fortune지의 미국 경제 불황 예측에 관한 경제 기사를 살펴볼텐데요.
괜찮은 영어 표현들은 밑줄을 쳐놨고,
특이한 영어 표현은 파란 배경색과 기울임꼴을 적용하였습니다.
또한 어려운 영어 단어들은 노란 배경색을 부여하고 해석을 달아놨습니다.
Are We Near a Recession?
The Godfather of the Inverted Yield Curve Says It’s ‘Code Red’
By Lucinda Shen
Is the U.S. nearing a recession?
It’s the multi-trillion dollar question on the minds of executives and investors around the world. The inverted yield curve, a key predictor for financial downturns, has appeared in recent months at a time when international markets have soured.
■ 고라소니와 함께하는 영어 표현 익히기
○ Markets have Soured 는 경제 시장이 힘든 시기를 겪는다는 뜻이고 시장 상황 표현으로 영자 기사들에서 빈번하게 사용되는 표현입니다.
○ Code Red: 빨간불, 경고등이 켜졌다는 뜻으로 매우 심각한 상황이라는 의미입니다.
Yet U.S. stock markets are still near their all-time high while U.S. retail sales appear upbeat. So some are arguing the yield curve inversion that has predicted each of the last seven downturns, is mistaken this time around.
■ 고라소니와 함께하는 영어 표현 익히기
○ All-time high 여기서는 문맥상 주가가 연일 고공행진을 한다는 표현입니다.
○ upbeat: 긍정적인, 낙관적인
But the academic who discovered the correlation between an inverted yield curve and the subsequent downturn stands by its predictive power in this particular case.
"I have gone on the record to issue a recession code red,” says Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. “Growth will slow according to my model.”
■ 고라소니와 함께하는 경제 인물 탐구: Cambell Harvey
○ 수익률 곡선의 대부, 듀크대학교 교수.
○ 채권 커브와 경기 침체의 상관성을 처음으로 밝혀낸 전문가로 캐나다계 경제학자.
Indeed the spread between the 10-year and the 3-month has sustained its inversion almost perfectly for exactly a quarter—minus one singular bright spot in late July when the yields of the two treasuries dallied at around the same levels. One of the initial curves that Harvey examined, the 5-year to the 3-month, has been inverted since February. And in what seems like confirmation of the fact, the 10-year and 2 year, which has also predicted past recessions, also has turned red in August.
■ 고라소니와 함께하는 영어 표현 익히기
○ The spread는 금리 격차를 말합니다.
- the 10-year 란, 10년짜리, 일명 10년물 미국 국채의 금리를 의미합니다.
- the 3-month 란, 3개월짜리, 일명 3개월물 미국 국채의 금리를 의미합니다.
Harvey notes that indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates, and the stock market are all lagging indicators—they give a snapshot of what is happening over the past quarter or now, for example. Instead, he points to a recent Chief Financial Officer survey conducted by Duke, in which 67% of CFOs said they expect a recession in late 2020. These surveys, says Harvey, can indicate how key decision makers plan to spend their money in the future.
■ 고라소니와 함께하는 영어 표현 익히기
○ lagging: 뒤쳐지는
-여기서는 Lagging indicators라고 해서 경기 후행지표라는 의미로 쓰였습니다. 이미 벌어진 상황을 보여주는 지표라는 뜻이죠.
○ Survey is Conducted 처럼 설문이 수행된다라고 할때는 Conduct 라는 표현을 씁니다.
In 1986, at a time when many other economists were focusing on the stock market as a predictor for a recession, Harvey was examining the relationship between the yield spreads—specifically the 10-year Treasury and the 3-month bill as well as the relationship between the 5-month to 3 month—to four historical recessions.
■ 고라소니와 함께하는 영어 표현 익히기
○ The Yield Spread : 채권 스프레드
○ predictor for a recession: 경기 침체 예측을 위한 예측 지표
Typically, long-term treasuries offer higher yields. Harvey though focused in particular on the rare times when the yield on the 10-year falls below that of the 2-year or the 3-month—creating an inverted yield curve. The research bore fruit. In those moments when the atypical occurred for a period of a quarter or longer, a recession followed.
■ 고라소니와 함께하는 영어 표현 익히기
○ atypical : 이례적인
○ bore fruit: 결실을 맺다. 여기서는 문맥상 연구의 결말을 냈다는 뜻입니다.
Distilling it down, he theorizes that when investors around the world sense incoming financial danger, they turn to the world’s safest asset—the U.S. 10-year treasury, a move that drives the yield of that product down relative to that its short-term brethren.
■ 고라소니와 함께하는 영어 표현 익히기
○ the U.S. 10-year treasury: 미국 10년 국채
○ Distilling it down: 문맥상 결말을 내볼때 라는 뜻으로 쓰였습니다.
○ Short-term brethen: 호흡이 짧은
Certainly there is space for doubt. The curve inversion reflects high uncertainty and high expectations of a recession, rather than directly determining a recession itself. Thus, the 5 year 3 month has been wrong at least once in 1998, when the curve inverted for over a quarter, per data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. But that inversion did predict sentiment: it occured at a time when investors were severely concerned that the implosion of hedge fund giant, Long-Term Capital Management, would lead to a global financial crisis. And perhaps of interest, the 10-year-3 month did not invert in the same period, nor did the 10-year to 2-year curve
Some critics argue there haven't been enough recessions for the data to be reliable. And recently, former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen spoke with Fox Business, and said that the quantitative easing—in which the Federal Reserve acquired government bonds in order to inject liquidity into the market—had shifted the balance of the yield curve and made the signal less reliable, a point that Harvey assiduously disputes in a recent LinkedIn post.
Another point about the curve’s limited usability: An inverted yield curve doesn’t exactly predict when a recession is coming. In the past, it has typically taken between 12 months to 18 months for a recession to materialize.
■ 고라소니와 함께하는 영어 표현 익히기
○ quantative easing: 양적 완화
○ there is space for doubt: 의심의 여지가 있다.
○ materialize: 실현되다.
"This does not look like an economy that is rolling over. Nor is it," wrote David R. Kotok, CIO of Cumberland Advisors in a recent note. "Economic slowdowns are far from synchronous with inversions. Growth continued for a year and a half after the yield curve inverted in 2006.“
But Harvey at least has done well to stick to his own thesis. The professor applied his paper to his personal life, cycling out of riskier assets in 2006 ahead of the financial crisis, and reallocating some of his equity holdings into assets such as bonds or cash. That softened the blow of the downturn at a time when well-respected giants like the Lehman Brothers had yet to blow up for their investments in subprime mortgages.
And while Harvey admits there is a possibility of a "false signal," he's not taking any chances. His holdings today has also shifted toward a more “defensive portfolio.”
■ 고라소니와 함께하는 영어 표현 익히기
○ applied his paper to: 그의 이론을 ~에 적용했다.
○ holdings: 여기서는 문맥상 포트폴리오로 쓰였습니다.
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